The political battleground of Bihar is heating up as the Axis My India exit poll 2025 suggests a closely fought contest between the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Mahagathbandhan (MGB). Conducted after the conclusion of voting across the state, the poll offers a glimpse into what could be one of the most competitive elections in recent years.
NDA Slightly Ahead in Seat Projection
According to Axis My India’s projections, the NDA is expected to secure between 121 and 141 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan (comprising RJD, Congress, and Left parties) is likely to win 98 to 118 seats
This forecast, while giving a slight edge to the NDA, still indicates a tight race, with several constituencies expected to witness photo-finish results.
Vote Share Margin Narrow
In terms of vote share, Axis My India estimates that the NDA could garner around 43%, while the MGB may capture approximately 41%. The narrow 2% margin highlights the state’s evenly divided electorate and the intense competition between alliances
Tejashwi Yadav Tops CM Preference Poll
Interestingly, on the question of “Who should be the next Chief Minister?”, the survey found that Tejashwi Yadav of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leads with around 34% public support.
Nitish Kumar, the current Chief Minister and JD(U) leader, trails with about 22%, reflecting growing demand for change among a section of voters.
Historical Context and Accuracy
Axis My India has been among the more reliable pollsters in India, but Bihar’s political dynamics have often defied predictions. In the 2015 and 2020 assembly elections, several exit polls underestimated the Mahagathbandhan’s performance
Analysts therefore advise caution—exit polls are not the final word, and actual counting results can sometimes tell a very different story.
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Regional Patterns and Voter Issues
Reports indicate that the NDA performed well in northern and western Bihar, while the MGB held strong in central and southern districts. Key voter issues included unemployment, rising prices, caste representation, and infrastructure development.
Women voters and first-time voters are also believed to have played a crucial role in shaping the outcome.
Final Thoughts
The Axis My India exit poll 2025 paints a picture of a neck-and-neck fight between the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan. While the numbers give a slight advantage to the ruling alliance, the battle for Bihar remains wide open until the official results are announced.
All eyes are now on the Election Commission’s final count, which will decide who takes charge of the politically pivotal state.
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Comment
Thank you for the clear roadmap — it makes the process less intimidating.